It ain’t no dynasty if you don’t cover!

With the results of the last Super Bowl fresh in our memory, the media is bound and determined to belabor us by anointing the New England Patriots the newest so-called NFL dynasty. It was the Pats’ third Super Bowl victory in four years, a 24-21 no-cover win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Jacksonville on February 6.

But a hard look at the Pats’ ATS record in its last three Super Bowls, 1-2, compels us to take a contrarian point of view; pyrrhic victories a dynasty do not make. Bettors were once again lulled into a comfort zone by the Pats, whose easy playoff wins made the Eagles seem like sacrificial lambs.

Of course, bookmakers from Vegas to Costa Rica are ecstatic with the S.B. results. They reaped a bonanza, as Nevada books handled a record $90.8 million with an astonishing 17% win. If Silver State BMs genuflected and chanted, “We’re not worthy,” they’d still be recipients of $15.4 million in winnings, according to figures released by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. No such agency tabulates offshore data, but the lack of tears and abundance of Cheshire cat smiles from these operators speaks volumes.

When lightning strikes in the same place twice, you should expect to get burned. Chalk bettors have backed the winning Super Bowl team two years in a row and have nothing to show for it but busted bankrolls. So, to repeat our mantra, it ain’t no dynasty if you don’t cover. Let’s just say the Pats have established a winning legacy.

In the first half, New England blew a real shot at changing the game’s momentum, after a nine-play 81-yard TD drive by the Eagles. The Tom Brady-led offense responded by squandering a 74-yard drive that stalled on the Philadelphia 13 when Brady fumbled a handoff.

Alas, the killer for those hoping to get a cover came in the second half. Taking over on their own eight-yard line, holding a 14-7 advantage with 8:49 left in the third quarter, the Pats got greedy on third and four. Instead of trying to maintain the drive by throwing a possession pass, Brady flung a high risk bomb to David Patten that was incomplete. A punt gave Philly the ball on its 26 from which it commenced a 74-yard td drive to tie the game at 14.

When the Pats finally opened up a 10-point lead, savvy but pessimistic bettors knew they were looking at an inevitable back door score which would result in a push or loss, rather than a win.

Sure enough, an Eagles’ 13-play, 79-yard drive culminated in a 30 yard scoring pass to Greg Lewis that crushed New England bettors, but didn’t derail the Pats’ coronation as the NFL’s newest official dynasty. Regular safety Eugene Wilson, who normally would have picked up the receiver to provide double coverage, had left earlier with a broken arm. His replacement didn’t get the job done.

Maybe NFL Commish Tagliabue is growing weary of the constant references to parity and mediocrity as hallmarks of the league’s level of competition. But as good a team as New England is, and as much as the Pats leave the rest of the league in their backwash, let’s save the term “dynasty” for teams that not only win, but do so in convincing fashion. Like, for instance, covering the impost they have been given.

To use an analogy, champion horses that are deemed the best of their era are those who win races being handicapped by carrying more weight than the competition. We realize some might find fault with comparing humans to horses, but we’re comparing champions, not species.

The NFL’s enduring dynasties are the Pittsburgh Steelers: 1975, ’76, ’79 & ’80, 4-0 S/U, 3-1 ATS; San Francisco 49ers, 1982, ’85, ’89 & ’90, 4-0 S/U, 2-1-1- ATS; Miami, 1972, ’73 & ’74, 3-0 S/U, 2-1 ATS, and Dallas Cowboys, 1993, ’94, & ’96; 2-0 S/U, 2-1 ATS.

Of course, many purists might object to gamblers’ standards being imposed in the crowning of dynasties. We’ll not object to the accusation that there is a hint of “sour grapes” in our little diatribe. But it doesn’t alter the fact that for two years in a row; New England squeaked out a narrow, underachieving win.

Suffice it to say for all those bettors who tore up tickets while watching the Pats celebrate as this year’s S.B. champs, there was no joy in Mudville.

Other than the host city of the Big Game, the most dynamic celebratory, off-the-wall activities take place in Las Vegas. The city makes this boast annually, and the claim actually lives up to the hype. On this day Vegas serves up more Buffalo wings, chugs more brewskis and exhibits more cellulite-free female skin than anywhere in the U.S.

But this year, arguably the city’s wildest, hippest most exuberant Super Bowl extravaganza was hosted by an up-and-coming (or perhaps it’s there already) offshore sportsbook. Costa Rica-based Betcom.com not only stole the thunder of the city’s numerous bet shops, it clued in its peers that Betcom is a competitor to be reckoned with.

Opting for the Whiskey Bar -- a trendy, upscale nightclub in prestigious Green Valley Ranch Hotel and Casino -- Betcom pulled out all the stops because this gala was not done on the cheap. Attendance was a who’s who of the industry.

We’re not going to mention names because we’d inadvertently leave off someone. But for more details and insider stuff about this event, check out gambling911.com, which is a preeminent website for covering both formal and informal offshore happenings.

We will mention one attendee, Ken Weitzner, who we haven’t seen in years and who used to own ThePrescription.com when he was known as The Shrink. He looked calmer and less stressed out than he was during in the anything-goes era that characterized online offshore websites back in the early days … but of course, he was accompanied by his own Rock of Gibraltar, wife Jackie, whose inner strength and outward glow has worked wonders in refocusing the erstwhile Shrink.

The party featured top quality hamburgers, hot dogs, brats, with all the fixin's, endless finger food as well as lots of fresh veggies and dips. Bottled beer seems to be the drink of choice of sports bettors, but fancy mixed drinks created by The Whiskey were also imbibed.

Before and during the game some of the most diverting, scantily clad young women we’ve seen in a while were happily posing for pictures with guests, as well as handing out a virtually endless supply of logo apparel.

In the days preceding the party, Betcom also held a golf tournament on Saturday at the nearby Legacy Course, and hosted a cocktail party Friday night.

Although it has no justification to do so, Vegas has a distinctly nose in the air attitude about off shore sports books. They are, after all, competition .And a number of unresolved issues lets the folks in Vegas assume a superior posture. Kudos to Station Casinos for working with Betcom and putting on a gala event that raises the bar pretty high for those who would follow.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention one of Betcom’s principals, Mike Nicoles, whose vision and fortitude as a sports book operator has served him well. We remember meeting him years ago in Vegas when he was launching his first book. Mike advertised in our magazine and we opened an account with the book. He has experienced the ups and downs that this industry offers and prevailed. Making a go of it is not a slam dunk.

Betcom looks like one of the industry’s emerging players which will be around when the U.S. belatedly admits that online gaming is a worthy endeavor, and our lame politicos pull their heads out of the sand and recognize it as such.

Eschewing the term wiseguy as a less precise description of his place in the gambling hierarchy, one of the city’s most successful professional bettors prefers to be called an advantage gambler. He also opts to be known by just one name, Fezzik, and is hosting the popular radio show You Can Bet on It, which is moderated by Larry Grossman August through January and which normally goes on hiatus after the football season.

But the show, with its gambling-oriented content, will now also be heard February to August. It airs Monday through Friday from 2-3 pm on KENO 1460 AM Las Vegas, and can also be accessed on the Internet at AudioVegas.com. Guests will run the gamut from high profile professionals like Twenty-One player Stanford Wong to little known, but highly proficient bettors who give the house a run for their money.

One of the shows during Fezzik's first week featured John Kelly, a serious sports and horse bettor who hosts a number of sports betting radio shows including the Stardust Invitational Handicapping Tournament. The discussion touched on a variety of compelling topics for gamblers, including analysis of that evening’s basketball game featuring Missouri at UNLV. They agreed that Mizzou was an overlay at +3½ points. By the narrowest of margins, they were correct as the Rebels won 74-71.

Anthony Curtis, publisher of the popular and highly credible newsletter Las Vegas Advisor, will be a regular contributor and provided fascinating and relevant tips on where to find value in Vegas. The LVA is a cornucopia of info on how to take advantage of the various deals offered by the casinos/hotels. Curtis has earned his sterling reputation by being a hands-on reporter as well as a savvy player who can make sophisticated value judgments about everything from comps, to coupon offers to black jack rules.

When the Kentucky Derby is imminent, Fezzik doesn’t plan on giving out a horse, but said he’ll have guests who will give stronger analysis than what you’ll get from most other shows. Additionally, he’ll be suggesting the best places to bet, where to get the most appealing giveaways, identifying the best parties, and where you can make a $20 bet and get stuff back.

The pace of the show is lively and when interesting tangents come up, they are pursued. Listeners draw useful insider tips and are entertained at the same time. Commercials are well spaced, so content isn’t squeezed.

“I don’t have to turn a recreational bettor into a winning bettor,” Fezzik told us, “but I can turn them into someone who is close to break even with the house and who gets more fun for their money.” For instance, he strongly advises against betting four-team parlays because you get dramatically short payoffs when you win. The last play on a four-teamer costs you -175, he points out. But recognizing the fun of trying to win a lot for a little, he advises betting three team parlays where the variance between the true payoff and sports book payoff is not so unfair.

Fezzik came to Las Vegas in the late 80s, to test his luck as a player. With a background as an actuary, he was well grounded in probability theory. However, he has the intellectual curiosity to probe more deeply into the variables that give the house its edge. He also possesses the capability to create a learning curve that lets him distance himself from the vast majority who think luck is the crucial element in gambling.

Even on that issue, Fezzik has a strong opinion based on empirical observation. “Some people are just luckier than others,” he states. “We may not know why, but it is a fact of life.”

Although his primary focus is on sports, he is well versed in all casino games. Conventional wisdom may say that slots and video poker cannot be beat, but as an advantage player Fezzik believes virtually every game is beatable. “But in some games, the mathematics is such that it is rare to find an opportunity,” he observed.

One way advantage players obtain more value is by getting comped at a higher rate than they are playing. For instance, a blackjack player may be betting $10 a hand, but if the supervisor is watching, kick up your bets to $40 or $50 for the period you are being observed. You’ll get rated at a much higher average and be comped accordingly. One caveat: this ploy isn’t going to do you any good unless you know how to play at least basic strategy.

Advantage players are different than wiseguys, who tend to bet well and with good information, Fezzik noted. But advantage players never have a losing year. “They play only when they have the best of it, when they determine there is an edge going for them. So this is not gambling in the traditional sense, it is working.”

In sports, the average bettor will spend a certain amount of time listening to ESPN, trying to get the latest info. Will Westbrook run back punts? Will T.O. play, and if so, how effective will he be? Is there value in the favorite or the dog?

But the advantage player laid 2½ or 3 points on the AFC in November, recognizing the value and assessing the potential S.B. matchups. “He’ll wait ‘til the last minute and take Philadelphia +7 at +115. He is going to find extreme value in the line, realizing by kickoff the line is pretty close to price accurate,” said Fezzik.

Casual/recreational players do not have to be dedicated losers. If they are willing to be a little more alert and aggressive, the books will not be able to take advantage of them. For instance, if a bettor wants to play Duke in baskets, and the line is 20 everywhere. But your book has the game at -21, you don’t play there. You would be laying the equivalent of -125 instead of -110. Never bet into a bad number!”

Being aware of the correct number is not shopping, Fezzik emphasized. It doesn’t require any effort at all to go online and check the prices at a lot of books.

Another tip for bettors is that over the long run, dogs are the way to bet and win. “On big dogs, frequently you’ll get a soft extra point. That premium you pay to bet a favorite is the difference between winning and losing.”

By airing the radio show during late winter, spring and summer, Fezzik will be able to explore a wide array of gaming topics as well as cover baskets and baseball which are played with much greater frequency than football.

One subject he plans to give strong coverage to is poker. Fezzik recently started playing the game and although he is currently winning at low stakes, he is losing at high stakes.

“I’m better than the average player, but worse than good players,” he noted. “I will be trying to raise my game along with everyone else that listens,” promised Fezzik.

Please send comments, questions, etc. to buzzdaly@aol.com.