The accuracy of that cliché, which suggests the past is irrelevant, is nothing more than a frequently misleading reference that punters would be better served to ignore. The latest proof-is-in-the-pudding is last year's ascension of the perennially lame Detroit Tigers, which saw the impeccable combo of savvy manager and motivated players jell into a pennant winner. Those who blindly followed conventional wisdom and bet against the 2006 Tigers, assuming they would fulfill their traditional role as also-rans, watched their bankroll tumble into a sinkhole.

So who will be this year's betting bonanzas, or at least the teams that help us cash tickets as live home dogs, and favorites who cover? As an American League bettor, I'll concentrate on two picks -- a bet-on team and a go-against team -- that should get us a positive return on investment.

As bettors, we need to track teams' progress through the efforts of their general managers. Some are smart, aggressive and shrewd evaluators of talent. Others are marginally competent, and it shows up in the won-loss column. Analyzing this year's teams, we find two instances that offer April betting advantages.

Tampa Bay. Under its previous management, the Devil Rays' farm system was neglected; high-priced, over-the-hill vets were signed in a pathetic effort to attract fans and win games. Lou Piniella, a feisty win-at-all costs skipper, was at a loss trying to handle a team with mediocre pitching and hapless hitters. His frustration with management was justified, but his mishandling of young pitchers and impatience with hitters who needed nurturing was painful to watch.

Today, general manager Andrew Friedman, with the blessing of team owners, is building a young and competitive team that will sneak up on the oddsmakers during the early going this year. Unfortunately, Sports Illustrated has blown the team's cover with its recent story on the Devil Rays' optimism for the future. Well, we're not looking that far ahead. The idea is to cash tickets at a nice price now, before the odds start reflecting the 2007 Devil Rays, rather than the team that has averaged 63 wins per year for the last five seasons.

TB's outfield is as good as any in MLB, featuring power, speed and batting average. Left fielder Carl Crawford, 25, is one of the most exciting players in the game and is on the verge of establishing himself at a super star. Since becoming a regular in 2003, he has improved every year in home runs, RBIs and batting average, while leading the league in stolen bases three of those years. He has averaged 54 SBs per season while playing in 153 games per year.

Joining Crawford is another rising young star, Rocco Baldelli who has overcome elbow and knee surgeries suffered in 2005, to resume his career as the team's centerfielder of the future. The 25-year-old returned last year and showed his speed and hitting ability was intact. In just under two-thirds of a season, he smacked 16 home runs, and he has added muscle that lets this year's power surge project to over 25 taters.

The third member of this youthful troika of fly-chasers is Delmon Young, for whom the sky is the limit. He has matured and left his troubled past behind -- a 50-game suspension last year in Triple A for throwing his bat at an umpire -- as he harnesses his considerable skills.

Adding punch to the lineup is DH Jonny Gomes, whose production last year was impacted by a hurt shoulder. But the tape measure shots he hit in spring training this year show he has completely recovered. Healthy, he is expected to be a big contributor in homers and RBIs.

The infield is underrated with 2B Jorge Cantu primed for a comeback, coming off a 2006 season wracked with injuries. He is strictly a hitter, as his fielding is suspect. Ben Zobrist, a slick-fielding shortstop who showed strong discipline as a hitter in the minors had a terrific spring training. He intends to demonstrate that he is not your typical good field, no-hit prospect. Journeyman Ty Wiggington is adequate at first base, but 24-year-old Wes Bankston projects more power, a better stroke, and is the heir apparent.

Japanese import Akinori Iwamura is penciled in to handle the hot corner, and based on a strong career in Japan, he should make the transition to American baseball as easily as many of his fellow countrymen.

One of the team's most enigmatic talents, BJ Upton, has been talked about for years but is still only 22. Manager Joe Maddon has finally decided that instead of worrying about Upton's deficiencies in the field, they will focus on his strong hitting. The youngster will take various turns spelling teammates in both the outfield and infield.

The pitching staff is lead by one of the game's premier young southpaws, Scott Kazmir, who has had some difficulty staying healthy. But at the end of spring training, he was poised to enter the season with the capability of winning 20 games. The rest of the staff is relatively unknown, but has more upside than it is given credit for: Casey Fossum, Jae Seo, Jamie Shields, JP Howell and highly touted, but as-yet unsuccessful Los Angeles Dodger refugee Edwin Jackson, have paid their dues and are ready to contribute as starters or in middle relief.

The bull pen is notable for strong arms, but has little in the way of a track record. However Seth McClung did notch six saves late in the season when he inherited the closer position by default. With hard-throwing Chad Orvella, Brian Stokes, Al Reyes and Juan Salas all looking to take the job, the team's closer role will be handled by committee until one of them breaks from the pack.

Tampa Bay opens on the road at New York and Toronto, before coming home to play Texas and Minnesota. Next comes road series with Baltimore, Cleveland and the Yankees. They close out April on the road in Los Angeles and Oakland.

The Rays will be getting juicy numbers as road dogs, and figure to be home dogs as well. If they play .500 ball during the month, backers will net a handsome profit. As it becomes clear that T.B. is competitive, those numbers will diminish, so take advantage early.

Our go-against team is the Minnesota Twins, who enter the season trying to replace two starting pitchers who were mainstays of last year’s staff -- Brad Radke (retired) and Francisco Liriano (DL) -- and field a lineup with several players coming off career years, who are unlikely to repeat.

Following a year in which they rung up 96 wins and took first place in arguably MLB's toughest division, the AL Central, many bettors will assume the pieces are still intact, and the Twins justify laying hefty odds with this year's entry. Not so.

Centerfielder Tori Hunter last year hit a personal best 31 home runs, but he'll be 32 this season -- not old by any means, but with his best years probably behind him. Joe Mauer led the league in hitting, but as long as he is a full-time catcher, he is subject to the pounding that position routinely absorbs over the course of a season. Indeed, during spring training Mauer has been hindered by shin splints, and they come with the territory.

Two young sluggers, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, had breakout seasons in 2006, and while both look like legitimate hitters, their bats cannot carry this team. And there is no guarantee that either will improve upon last year's output.

After pitching superstud Johan Santana, there is a substantial dropoff to starters Carlos Silva, Boof Bonser, Sidney Ponson and some talented prospects who have yet to prove themselves -- Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey. While Garza looks like a comer and the others also have major league upside, expecting them to blossom in 2007 is a stretch.

The one area where Minny excels is in the bullpen. Closer Joe Nathan is the real deal, and there is no reason to think he cannot dominate AL hitters again this year. He is ably backed by a contingent of top caliber short- and middle-relievers who will keep the Twins in games by holding down the opposition.

Look for low-scoring games as the Twins hitters underachieve, but their relievers keep the games respectable. That's right, bet under on the Twins during the early season, particularly vs. left handers, since that's when Minnesota's biggest bats, Morneau and Mauer, could be neutralized, and the other slugger, Jason Kubel will likely be on the bench.

One caveat re the Twins: The organization reacts quickly, and the deficiencies we note here will probably not be in evidence all season long. This is a betting preview for April. Monitor how the team adjusts and most importantly if any of the rookie pitchers shows signs of emulating Liriano's pheenom-like characteristics. They can quickly become a bet-on team if the young starting hurlers develop during the season.

Please send comments, questions, etc. to buzzdaly@aol.com.